This is a good question and I am sure that my answer will be insufficient
mainly due to my lack of knowledge of formal studies performed in decision
making procedures where modeling & simulation (M&S) is involved.
Based, though, on my personal observation the risks of information overload
should be considered along with other risks. For low-risk decisions, the use
of M&S may not be required or preferred. For high-risk decisions in our current
era, M&S is generally an invaluable decision making aid, in addition to other
analyses (e.g., scale modeling, live/physical experiments, statistical analyses
not requiring a time-advance mechanism).
Fundamental human capabilities of caring and sharing are always essential,
but for high-risk scenarios, they are necessary but insufficient. The role of M&S
has been one of an ever-increasing adoption curve based on reduced costs
of the associated technologies, faster computers, and better software.
Nothing is a given, however, as we are all human. Politics may be present. And
we are making the decisions with the help of underlying models. But,
for high-risk scenarios, I believe that our collective wisdom will continue to
be enhanced with M&S.
paul
> On Sep 23, 2015, at 2:52 AM, Chris Fremantle <chris@fremantle.org> wrote:
>
> Hi
> Can I ask a question - Paul to what extent do you think the programme of
> modelling and simulation has led to wise decision making?
> I worked with the Harrisons on their project Greenhouse Britain: Losing
> Ground, Gaining Wisdom. The challenge is the translation of information
> into knowledge and then into wisdom (being in this case encouraging deeper
> reflection on where to defend a coastline, where to retreat and where to
> defend now in order to make a planned retreat later).
> It seems to me self evident that being caring, cooperative and creative
> usually requires attention - greater volume of communication is usually a
> form of distraction. There is an interesting literature (Kaplan et al) on
> the relationship between attention and distraction which is particularly
> useful in relation to creative and caring practices eg effective
> distraction in hospitals.
> Chris
>
> Chris Fremantle
>
> +44(0)7714203016
> http://chris.fremantle.org
> http://ecoartscotland.net
> skype chris.fremantle
> On 23 Sep 2015 03:03, "Paul Fishwick" <metaphorz@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Ken
>>
>> I am also wondering about the nature of "tool" but this may be another
> YASMIN topic. The notion
>> of tool came into focus for me in Prague over the summer when I learned
> something basic about
>> the art of the blacksmith. Before I met him, I was of a mind to see the
> steel bottle opener he was
>> selling as a tool. Then everything changed when he invited me to put on
> an apron. I am writing a blog
>> post on it and will send to you or others, if interested.
>>
>> -paul
>>
>>
>>> On Sep 21, 2015, at 3:35 PM, Ken Friedman <ken.friedman.sheji@icloud.com>
> wrote:
>>>
>>> Dear Paul,
>>>
>>> Thanks. This is useful and informative. These are the tools that allow
> people to understand what is happening to the planet. The choices we make
> with what we learn help to determine the future. I'm not very hopeful for
> the long-term prospects of humanity on the planet, but this is a good
> foundation for whatever chance we have.
>>>
>>> Yours,
>>>
>>> Ken
>>>
>>>
>>>> On 2015Sep21, at 15:18, Paul Fishwick <metaphorz@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> All
>>>> While I generally agree parts of Ken's post, I do want to highlight an
> effort in which I am heavily involved,
>>>> and then state its relevance to technology. For the past 20 years, I
> have been a small cog in a State
>>>> of Florida organization: http://www.sbafla.com/methodology/ . This
> commission has long been concerned
>>>> with public awareness of a fairly complex process where government,
> industry, insurance, and the
>>>> people come together with respect to the effects of hurricanes
> emerging from within the atlantic tropical
>>>> basin. The methodologies involved in this process all rely on modeling
> & simulation (M&S). Thus, to understand
>>>> something about catastrophe and risk, once must have some knowledge of
> M&S. The commission is
>>>> embarking upon standards for flood (coastal and inland) in addition to
> wind.
>>>> So, while what is beneath the surface of "technology" (namely,
> mathematics, science and engineering)
>>>> may not directly contribute to happiness and altruism, cooperation and
> knowledge can be enhanced with
>>>> M&S knowledge and the sciences behind M&S. If there is any doubt of
> this, please see the picture blog
>>>> that I edit here: modelingforeveryone.com on behalf of ACM SIGSIM.
> Many will recognize the global
>>>> importance of these issues: they all have one thing in common — they
> are being studied, cooperatively
>>>> and with engagement, using models. Want to make a difference in
> climate change? Begin by understanding
>>>> how the science is developed based on modeling:
> https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf
>>>> "Feel good" and "Let's all be caring" rhetoric doesn't cut it.
>>>> We also should quit using "technology" as a veil for a deeper
> understanding of our world through mathematics,
>>>> science and engineering. Technology is a byproduct of these more
> fundamental fields.
>>>> -paul
>>>>
>>>
>>>
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>> Paul Fishwick, PhD
>> Chair, ACM SIGSIM
>> Distinguished University Chair of Arts, Technology, and Emerging
> Communication
>> Professor of Computer Science
>> Director, Creative Automata Laboratory
>> The University of Texas at Dallas
>> Arts & Technology
>> 800 West Campbell Road, AT10
>> Richardson, TX 75080-3021
>> Home: utdallas.edu/atec/fishwick
>> Blog: creative-automata.com
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
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>>
>> SBSCRIBE: click on the link to the list you wish to subscribe to. In the
> page that will appear ("info page"), enter e-mail address, name, and
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> Digest Mode" option and set it to either on or off.
>> If you prefer to read the posts on a blog go to
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>
> Chris Fremantle
>
> +44(0)7714203016
> http://chris.fremantle.org
> http://ecoartscotland.net
> skype chris.fremantle
> _______________________________________________
> Yasmin_discussions mailing list
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> SBSCRIBE: click on the link to the list you wish to subscribe to. In the page that will appear ("info page"), enter e-mail address, name, and password in the fields found further down the page.
> HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE: on the info page, scroll all the way down and enter your e-mail address in the last field. Enter password if asked. Click on the unsubscribe button on the page that will appear ("options page").
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> If you prefer to read the posts on a blog go to http://yasminlist.blogspot.com/
Paul Fishwick, PhD
Chair, ACM SIGSIM
Distinguished University Chair of Arts, Technology, and Emerging Communication
Professor of Computer Science
Director, Creative Automata Laboratory
The University of Texas at Dallas
Arts & Technology
800 West Campbell Road, AT10
Richardson, TX 75080-3021
Home: utdallas.edu/atec/fishwick
Blog: creative-automata.com
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